War in Ukraine: Day 483
By Rishika Yadav and Sreeja JS

War on the Ground
On 20 June, the Ukrainian government portal reported on the discussions over the joint implementation of a community-based approach to Ukraine's recovery ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov, and UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine, Denise Brown, discussed the plan, which includes establishing a Community Recovery Fund to support long-term recovery and community resilience, focusing on housing restoration, critical infrastructure, and social infrastructure, humanitarian demining, and local business support. The aim is to mobilize USD 300 million over five years, starting with an initial seed funding of USD 50 million. Kubrakov emphasized the importance of continuing the decentralization reform and providing institutional, financial, and advisory support to strengthen communities.

On 21 June, the Kyiv Post reported on the interview of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the BBC. Zelensky admited that progress on the battlefield against Russia has been slower than desired, emphasizing the importance of human lives over hasty outcomes. The counter-offensive has retaken eight villages, but the presence of extensive Russian-laid landmines across a vast territory hampers further advancements. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will proceed on the battlefield according to its own judgment, despite external pressures to expedite. While seeking security guarantees from NATO, Zelensky affirmed Ukraine's goal of joining the defensive alliance. He rejected the idea of accepting a frozen conflict, expressing concerns about Russia and its reported relocation of tactical nuclear weapons.

On 21 June, the Ukrainian President’s press service reported about Zelensky address to the Ukrainian people on the 483rd day of the war. In the address Zelensky highlighted the fierce battles against Russian invaders in various front sectors. He expressed gratitude for the progress made in destroying Russia and acknowledged the firm defence in the East. Zelensky also mentioned the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, appreciating the financial support packages from the UK, the US, and the EU. He emphasized the importance of international business support for Ukraine's transformation and the need for EU sanctions to limit Russia's profits. Zelensky welcomed new ambassadors and expressed confidence in Ukraine's victory and the world's belief in the Ukrainian people.

On 21 June, Ukrinform reported on a United News Telethon. During the telethon, the head of Ukrainian Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, expressed concerns about the potential threat at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Budanov stated that the plant, which is under temporary control of Russian-backed forces, has been mined, particularly the cooler. If the cooler is disabled by an explosion, significant problems could arise. He emphasized that this situation should not be linked to US President Joe Biden's recent statement on the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 21 June, RT News reported on the statement by the Russian Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov. He stated that Russia saw no reason to extend the agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, as the deal has not been fulfilled. The UN and Turkey mediated agreement, signed in July 2022, aims to ensure the safe shipment of Ukrainian grain while removing obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports imposed by the west due to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Despite previous extensions, Peskov noted that the West has not fulfilled its promises, leading Russia to consider ending the deal on July 18.

On 21 June, RT News reported on the statement made by Russian Governor of Moscow Oblast, Andrey Vorobyov. He confirmed that the Russian military had shot down two unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) near military warehouses in Kalinetz, southwest of Moscow. No injuries or damage were reported in the incident. Local authorities have discovered drone fragments, and law enforcement agencies are investigating the matter. TASS news agency reports that three drones were neutralized using electronic warfare measures near the home base of the Russian Taman Motor Rifle division.

On 21 June, TASS reported on the interview with the Russian CEO of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), Aleksey Rakhmanov. According to Rakhmanov, two nuclear-powered submarines, the emperor Alexander III (Borey-A-class) and the Krasnoyarsk (Project 885M or Yasen-M), will be commissioned into the Russian Navy later this year. The submarines are being constructed by the Sevmash shipyard, a subsidiary of USC. Additionally, the Admiralty Shipyard will deliver three diesel-electric submarines of the Lada and Varshavyanka classes. The information is shared ahead of the upcoming International Maritime Defence Show (IMDS-2023) in Kronstadt, Russia.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe     
On 21 June, the UK Ministry of Defence updated on the War in Ukraine. Commenting on the intense ongoing fighting in Southern Ukraine, it said that Russia continues to maintain control of Crimea as its top priority. According to the update, Russia has been taking significant efforts to build defensive lines deep in rear areas, especially towards approaches to Crimea. 

On 21 June, European Pravda reported on the approval of the 11th package of sanctions against Russia after Greece and Hungary dropped their objections. The Swedish Presidency of the Council of EU tweeted that the package would include measures aimed at countering sanctions circumvention and individual listings. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the “political agreement” and tweeted that this move would be another blow to Putin’s war machine. According to Reuters, the new sanctions package would forbid transit through Russia an expanded list of goods and technology which might be aiding Moscow’s military and security. It would also include restrictions on the sale of dual-use goods and technology to third-world countries that might sell it to Russia, says Reuters. The sanctions further would extend the suspension of EU broadcasting licences of five Russian state-controlled media, and ban ships that are engaged in ship-to-ship transfers’ access to EU ports if the cargo is suspected of Russian origin. It further added another 71 people and 33 entities to those banned from the EU.

On 21 June, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London commented on providing humanitarian assistance and funding for reconstruction to Ukraine. She said that Germany would respond to Putin with a “reconstruction offensive.” In the short term, Germany would provide an enormous amount of new humanitarian assistance to those worst hit by destruction, flooding and displacement. In the long term, it would help lay the groundwork to boost the Ukrainian economy fit for the future via the accession process. She also added that private sector investment is crucial for the future and the German government would continue to support them.

On 21 June, according to The Washington Post, the US is planning to provide an additional USD 1.3 billion to support rebuilding Ukraine, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London.

On 21 June, according to GOV.UK, the UK government set out a financial package that would unlock USD 3 billion worth of World Bank loans to boost Kyiv’s economic stability and support public services. The UK is hosting the Ukraine Recovery Conference between 21 to 22 June. Major business conglomerates, international corporations and retail chains have signed up to the Ukraine Business Compact to encourage trade, investment and responsible business practices in Ukraine to rebuild and transform its economy. Sunak would also launch the London Conference Framework for War Risk Insurance at the summit backed by G7 countries. He would also announce up to GBP 250 million for British International Investment (BII) to fund life-saving projects, reform programmes and energy projects in Ukraine.

References
“Oleksandr Kubrakov: Ukraine and the UN will create a Community Recovery Fund,” kmu.gov.ua, 20 June 2023
“Zelensky Acknowledges Slow Progress – Says it’s NOT a Movie,” The Kyiv Post, 21 June 2023
“It is our state that global hopes are focused on, and our people will justify them: Ukraine will win – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 21 June 2023
“When we build Ukraine, we will build freedom – online speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London,” president.gov.ua, 21 June 2023
“Budanov: Russians mine cooler at ZNPP,” Ukrinform, 21 June 2023
“No grounds to extend grain deal – Kremlin,” RT news, 21 June 2023
“Two drones downed in Moscow Region – governor,” RT news, 21 June 2023
“Alexander III, Krasnoyarsk nuclear subs to join Russian Navy this year — official,” TASS, 21 June 2023
“EU approves Eleventh Package of Sanctions against Russia,” European Pravda, 21 June 2023
Jan Strupczewski, “EU approves 11th sanctions package against Russia over Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 June 2023
“Foreign Minister Baerbock ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London,” Federal Foreign Office, 21 June 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 21 June 2023,” Twitter, 21 June 2023
John Hudson, Ellen Francis, Andrew Jeong, Robyn Dixon and Eve Sampson, “ Ukraine live briefing: U.S. pledges $1.3B more in aid at war recovery conference in London,” The Washinton Post, 21 June 2023
“Global businesses pledge to back Ukraine's recovery as PM sets out major financial package,” GOV.UK, 21 June 2023
“Statement attributed to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General - on the Black Sea Initiative,” un.org, 20 June 2023

In Brief
By Rishika Yadav and Sreeja JS

ESTONIA
Commander General of NATO Joint Force Command Brunssum visits Estonia
On 21 June, Commander General Guglielmo Luigi Miglietta visited Estonia. He met with the Ministry of Defence’s Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm and discussed the objectives of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, enhancing regional security, and the recent developments in the Estonian Defence Forces. Salm remarked that the summit’s vital goal is to demonstrate that the alliance had permanently transitioned into an enhanced defence posture. He also added that it is necessary to confirm NATO regional defence plans to collectively start practicing and implementing defence activities. The NATO Joint Force Command Brunssum is headquartered in the Netherlands and it coordinates the alliance’s operations in Northern Europe. (“NATO Joint Force Command Brunsumm Commander visits Estonia,” ERR News, 21 June 2023)

FRANCE
Government outlaws SLT for protesting against agro-industry reservoirs
On 20 June, according to France 24, the government issued a decree to outlaw Uprisings of the Earth (SLT). It accused SLT of indulging in violence while protesting against an irrigation reservoir near Sainte-Soline in Western France that witnessed brutal clashes between protesters and the police. SLT condemned the decree and called for protests across various cities in France. It is a part of a new wave of radical climate activist groups including the Extinction Rebellion calling for direction against the insufficient efforts to combat climate change and global warming, says France 24. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin commented that SLT under the pretense of defending environment preservation encourages sabotage and property damage, including violence. (“France outlaws climate activist group involved in protest against agro industry reservoirs,” France 24, 21 June 2023)

Tourism Minister outlines new plan to regulate overflow of tourists
On 18 June, Tourism Minister Olivia Gregorie unveiled a new plan to regulate the overflow of tourists across France’s most popular sites and laid out a strategy to combat “over-tourism.” She said that France needs to properly manage the peak-season influxes that threaten “the environment, the quality of life for locals and the experiences for its visitors.” According to France 24, the government will constitute an industry monitoring group to identify at-risk sites and make strategies to encourage off-season visits. Gregorie said that it is up to the government to work hand-in-hand with the regional offices and tourist sites to implement measures to manage the crowds. She suggested several measures such as enlisting social media influencers to spread the word on the risks of over-tourism. (“France lays out strategy to combat 'overtourism',” France 24, 20 June 2023)

Gas explosion triggers devastating fire and building collapse in Paris
On 21 June, an explosion, believed to be caused by a gas leak, tore through a building in central Paris, leaving four people in critical condition and causing extensive damage. Rescue teams are searching for two missing individuals, while 33 others sustained minor injuries. The blast was followed by a massive fire that resulted in the collapse of the building, which housed a fashion school. The cause of the explosion is under investigation. The city of Paris has previously experienced gas-related incidents, including a deadly blast in 2019. (“Paris explosion causes a building in the 5th arrondissement to collapse,” Le Monde, 21 June 2023)

SLOVAKIA
President Zuzana Caputova to not run for re-election
On 20 June, The Guardian reported on President Zuzana Caputova’s decision to not run for re-election because of personal reasons. She added that she would complete her term which would expire with elections scheduled in 2024. Although, the office of the President is largely ceremonial in Slovakia the President ratifies international treaties, appoints top judges, has veto powers and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. According to The Guardian, one of the reasons for her decision was the “consideration” for her family as she was constantly receiving death threats. It also said that since she was elected the first female President of Slovakia, Caputova has been continuously facing attacks from former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer-SD party who repeatedly called her “American Agent.” (“Slovakian president Čaputová says she will not run for re-election,” The Guardian, 20 June 2023)

THE NETHERLANDS
Archaeologists unearth “Stonehenge of Netherlands”
On 21 June, The Guardian reported that Dutch archaeologists unearthed an approximately 4000 years old religious site, nicknamed the “Stonehenge of the Netherlands.” The scientists located three burial mounds, a few miles from the banks of the Waal River. The main mound is about 20 metres in diameter and its passages serve as a solar calendar. The excavation began in 2017, about 30 kilometres Southeast of Utrecht. Scientists also located two more small burial mounds, besides the main mound. The archaeologists suggested that these mounds were used as burial sites for about 800 years. (“Archaeologists unearth 4,000-year-old 'Stonehenge of the Netherlands',” The Guardian, 21 June 2023)

THE UK
Bank of England expected to raise interest rates amid rising inflation
On 22 June, BBC news reported that the Bank of England is anticipated to raise interest rates for the 13th consecutive time in its ongoing efforts to address increasing prices. Official data revealed that inflation remained at 8.7 per cent in May, making it more likely for the Bank to announce an increase in its benchmark rate from 4.5 per cent. Domestic reactions include concerns over the impact on mortgages and support for rate hikes to control inflation. Despite debates on its effectiveness, interest rates continue to be the primary tool to combat inflation. Analysts predict a rise to 4.75 per cent, with the possibility of a larger increase to five percent. The decision is expected to bring challenges for homeowners but potentially benefit savers. (Kevin Peachey, “Interest rates set to rise for 13th time in a row,” BBC news, 22 June 2023)

TURKEY
Set to reverse unorthodox economic policies to tackle inflation
On 22 June, BBC news reported that Turkey is on the verge of reversing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unconventional economic measures as the new economic team aims to combat soaring inflation. Within a month of Erdogan's re-election, interest rates are expected to undergo a significant increase from the current level of 8.5 per cent. With inflation nearing 40 per cent and the population facing a severe cost-of-living crisis, the need for action is evident. Disagreements among economists persist regarding the extent of the interest rate hike, with projections ranging from an 11.5 point increase to 20 per cent to a possible peak of 40 per cent. Erdogan's challenge lies in the persistent high inflation rate and critically low central bank reserves, which were depleted in efforts to stabilize the lira. The economy's current crisis and its impact on local elections next year further complicate the decision-making process. (Paul Kirby, “Turkey's Erdogan set for economic U-turn and steep interest rate hike,” BBC news, 22 June 2023)

REGIONAL
Italy and France resolve disputes and collaborate on migration and Ukraine
On 21 June, AP news reported that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron resolved their recent dispute during a meeting where they found common ground on various topics, including military assistance to Ukraine and managing migration in the Mediterranean. The recent tragic migrant shipwreck off Greece has prompted a renewed focus on addressing immigration policies within the EU. Macron praised the collaboration between France and Italy on migration issues, emphasizing the need to work with countries of origin and transit to prevent influxes. Meloni highlighted the importance of dialogue between the two countries and their shared interests. The leaders also discussed their support for Ukraine and prepared for upcoming EU and NATO summits. Additionally, Meloni sought backing for Italy's bid to host the 2030 World Expo. (Sylvie Corbet and Angela Charlton, “Italy’s Meloni and France’s Macron express agreement on migration following policy dispute,” AP news, 21 June 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Western countries compete for mineral independence amid environmental concerns
On 20 June, Le Monde reported that western countries, driven by the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and escalating tensions between the US and China, are racing to achieve mineral independence. Europe, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Chile are all making efforts in this regard. Even France is exploring its subsoil for lithium extraction. However, challenges arise from opposition to ocean mining due to environmental concerns, particularly in the fragile Arctic region. Furthermore, the refining process for ores, especially rare earths, poses significant pollution risks. China's dominance in the market highlights the question of who will undertake mining activities without facing public outcry as China does. (Philippe Escande, “Western countries are in a race for mineral independence,” Le Monde, 20 June 2023)